Trade & markets / Global

WTO lifts its 2026 goods-trade forecast to 3.9%

A stronger goods outlook contrasts with continuing pressure on transport services and uneven trade growth.

WTOAnnouncement / event date: 2026-10-08

The WTO’s October outlook puts 2026 merchandise trade volume growth at 3.9%, compared with 1.9% projected in March. Investment in AI-related goods and supply chains adapting to disruptions contributed to the revision.

Services face a different picture: the 2026 growth forecast was reduced to 3.3%. The report describes rerouted trade and continuing disruption, so aggregate growth should not be read as a promise of cheaper freight or a stable sailing schedule.

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Dates identify the reported announcement or effective event. Historical reporting does not replace a current route quotation or product-specific customs review.